Fuel Cells - A Technology Forecast.pdf

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Fuel Cells: A Technology Forecast
Authored by:
John Vanston, Ph.D.
&
Henry Elliott, M.S.M.E.
Program Director:
Michael Bettersworth, M.A.
FUEL CELL FORECAST >> OCTOBER 2003
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3801 Campus Drive
Waco, Texas 76705
Main: 254.867.3995
Fax: 254.867.3393
www.tstc.edu
Visit TSTC Publishing online at http://publishing.tstc.edu
ISBN (print copy): 0-9768503-8-9 ISBN (PDF ebook): 0-9786773-6-6
The TSTC logo and the TSTC logo star are trademarks of Texas State Technical College.
© Copyright Texas State Technical College. Published and printed at Texas State Technical College,
September 2003. All rights reserved.
The Technology Futures logo is a trademark of Technology Futures Inc.
© Copyright Technology Futures Inc., September 2003.
This technology forecast was funded by the Carl D. Perkins Vocational and Technical Act of 1998 as
administered by the Texas Higher Education Coordinating Board.
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Table of Contents
Preface .......................................................................................................................................... v
Acknowledgments .................................................................................................................... vi
General Observations ................................................................................................................. 1
Workforce Implications .............................................................................................................. 5
Training Strategies for Community and Technical Colleges ............................................. 9
Current Texas Fuel Cell Activities ........................................................................................ 13
State Government Activities ...................................................................................... 13
Proposed Fuel Cell Legislation ................................................................................. 16
Demonstration Projects .............................................................................................. 17
Fuel Cell Education and Advocacy Groups ............................................................ 23
Planned Fuel Cell Activities ...................................................................................... 26
Current State of Fuel Cell Technology ................................................................................. 27
How Fuel Cells Work .................................................................................................. 27
Fuel Cell Technologies ................................................................................................ 29
Fuel Cell Forecasts .................................................................................................................... 37
Forecast Underpinnings ............................................................................................. 37
Applications ................................................................................................................. 37
Forecast of Commercialization .................................................................................. 39
Background Information ............................................................................................ 40
Potential Impacting Factors .................................................................................................... 51
Accelerators .................................................................................................................. 51
Decelerators .................................................................................................................. 53
Final Comments ........................................................................................................................ 55
List of Appendices
Appendix A: Overview of Develop a Curriculum (DACUM) Meeting ............. 59
Appendix B: DACUM ................................................................................................. 64
Appendix C: DACUM Meeting Participants .......................................................... 68
Appendix D: Reports and Studies Utilized ............................................................. 70
Appendix E: Experts Interviewed ............................................................................ 72
Appendix F: Selected Fuel Cell Companies ............................................................ 73
Appendix G: Current Highway Vehicle Fuel Cell Projects .................................. 79
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List of Tables
Table 1: The Five Most Promising Fuel Cell Types ................................................ 30
Table 2: Forecast of Fuel Cell Use .............................................................................. 39
List of Figures
Figure 1: Projected Texas Fuel Cell MW Targets ..................................................... 14
Figure 2: Brooks City Base Project ............................................................................ 18
Figure 3: Laughlin Air Force Base, Building Application: Hospital .................... 21
Figure 4: Rebekah Baines Johnson Health Center .................................................. 22
Figure 5: Texas State Technical College Waco Fuel Cell ........................................ 25
Figure 6: Fuel Cell Reformer ...................................................................................... 27
Figure 7: Schematic of an Acid-Electrolyte Fuel Cell ............................................. 29
Figure 8: PEM Fuel Cell .............................................................................................. 31
Figure 9: PAFC Fuel Cell ............................................................................................ 32
Figure 10: Molten Carbonate Fuel Cells ................................................................... 34
Figure 11: Solid Oxide Fuel Cells .............................................................................. 35
Figure 12: Capital Cost per kW of Capacity ............................................................ 41
Figure 13: Projected Cost Curve (per kW of Installed Capacity) ......................... 42
Figure 14: US Oil Use for Transportation ................................................................ 44
Figure 15: ZEbus (Zero Emission Bus) ..................................................................... 46
Figure 16: Fuel Cell Power Plant for the Space Shuttle ......................................... 47
Figure 17: Fuel Cell Powered Toyota Highlander .................................................. 48
Figure 18: Portable Direct Methanol Fuel Cell ........................................................ 50
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