Stephenr Hosmer - Operations Against Enemy Leaders (2001).pdf - World War II - bogg

Project AIR FORCE

AGAINST

ENEMY

LEADERS

Stephen T.Hosmer

Prepared for the United States Air Force

Approved for public release; distribution unlimited

OPERATIONS

The research reported here was sponsored by the United States Air

Force under Contract F49642-01-C-0003. Further information may

be obtained from the Strategic Planning Division, Directorate of

Plans, Hq USAF.

Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

Hosmer, Stephen T.

Operations against enemy leaders / Stephen T. Hosmer.

p. cm.

MR-1385

Includes bibliographical references.

ISBN 0-8330-3028-0

1. Insurgency. 2. Coups d'âtat. 3. Assassination. 4. United States—Military

policy. I. Title.

JC328.5 .H67 2001

327.1273—dc21

2001041740

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and

decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND ® is a

registered trademark. RAND’s publications do not necessarily reflect

the opinions or policies of its research sponsors.

Cover design by Maritta Tapanainen

form by any electronic or mechanical means (including

photocopying, recording, or information storage and retrieval)

without permission in writing from RAND.

Published 2001 by RAND

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PREFACE

This report assesses the political-military efficacy of U.S. operations

to remove senior enemy leaders. Three forms of leadership attacks

are assessed: (1) operations that aim to directly attack the leader’s

person, (2) operations that are designed to foment and facilitate the

leader’s overthrow by an internal coup or rebellion, and (3) opera-

tions that aim to secure the leader’s ouster through takedown by

external military forces. Among other issues, the report examines the

prerequisites of the effective use of U.S. air power in direct attacks

and in support of coups, rebellions, and takedowns.

The report analyzes some 24 cases of leadership attack conducted or

planned by the United States and other powers during the past 50

years. These past cases provide important insights about both the

policy and the operational dimensions of leadership attacks, includ-

ing

•

the assumptions underlying the employment of leadership

attacks and the conditions under which they are most likely to be

sanctioned

•

the comparative efficacy and prerequisites for success of differ-

ent forms of attacks

•

the potential deterrent and coercive value of leadership attacks

for shaping future enemy policy and behavior

•

the reasons leadership attacks frequently fail to produce the out-

comes intended by the attackers.

The report is intended for the use of military and civilian officials

concerned with the management, planning, and conduct of U.S.

iii

Operations Against Enemy Leaders

operations to deter and counter threats to U.S. interests from enemy

regimes, terrorist groups, and other hostile actors. The research for

the report was completed in March 2001, well before the events of

September 11, 2001. The basic points made here remain accurate

and relevant.

The report is part of a larger RAND study, conducted within the

Strategy and Doctrine Program of Project AIR FORCE, of the uses of

air and space power in future conflicts that was sponsored by the Air

Force Assistant Deputy Chief of Staff for Air and Space Operations

and by the Air Force Director of Strategic Planning.

The primary objective of the overall study was to explore the

prospects for developing a construct for air and space power that

capitalizes on forthcoming air and space technologies and associated

concepts of operation; that is effective against adversaries with

diverse economies, cultures, political institutions, and military

capabilities; and that offers an expansive concept of air and space

power across the entire spectrum of conflict. Comments are wel-

come and may be addressed to the author or to the Strategy and

Doctrine Program director, Edward R. Harshberger.

PROJECT AIR FORCE

Project AIR FORCE, a division of RAND, is the Air Force federally

funded research and development center (FFRDC) for studies and

analyses. It provides the Air Force with independent analyses of

policy alternatives affecting the development, employment, combat

readiness, and support of current and future aerospace forces.

Research is carried out in four programs: Aerospace Force Develop-

ment; Manpower, Personnel, and Training; Resource Management;

and Strategy and Doctrine.

Stephenr Hosmer - Operations Against Enemy Leaders (2001).pdf

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