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Microsoft Word - DIF first demographic estimates 2008 new version revGPL.doc
Population and social conditions
Data in focus
Author: GiampaoloLANZIERI
49/2008
First demographic estimates for 2008
Table 1: Population change in 2008 (nowcasts)
Population
Live
Deaths
Natural
Net
Total
Population Crude Crude Crude Crude Crude
COUNTRY
1.1.2008
births
change
migration
change
1.1.2009
birth
death natural
net
total
rate
rate
change migration change
rate
rate
rate
(thousands)
(per thousand)
EU-27
497 455.0
5 384.2
4 828.4
555.8
1 662.5
2 218.3 499 673.3
10.8
9.7
1.1
3.3
4.4
EA-16
326 921.1
3 412.8
3 034.7
378.2
1 298.1
1 676.2 328 597.3
10.4
9.3
1.2
4.0
5.1
EA-15
321 520.1
3 356.4
2 981.8
374.7
1 291.5
1 666.2 323 186.3
10.4
9.3
1.2
4.0
5.2
EEA
502 540.9
5 449.2
4 871.9
577.3
1 712.7
2 290.0 504 830.9
10.8
9.7
1.1
3.4
4.5
EFTA
12 679.4
141.3
104.6
36.8
109.2
145.9 12 825.3
11.1
8.2
2.9
8.6
11.4
EU Member States
Belgium
10 666.9
123.3
102.1
21.2
53.0
74.2 10 741.0
11.5
9.5
2.0
5.0
6.9
Bulgaria
7 640.2
71.4
108.2
-36.7
-1.4
-38.1
7 602.1
9.4
14.2
-4.8
-0.2
-5.0
Czech Republic
10 381.1
118.2
105.5
12.7
80.8
93.5 10 474.6
11.3
10.1
1.2
7.7
9.0
Denmark
5 475.8
65.0
54.3
10.7
32.7
43.5
5 519.3
11.8
9.9
2.0
6.0
7.9
Germany
82 217.8
681.7
842.1
-160.3
4.8
-155.6 82 062.2
8.3
10.3
-2.0
0.1
-1.9
Estonia
1 340.9
16.3
17.1
-0.8
0.2
-0.6
1 340.3
12.2
12.8
-0.6
0.1
-0.4
Ireland
4 401.3
80.7
27.3
53.4
63.1
116.4
4 517.8
18.1
6.1
12.0
14.1
26.1
Greece
11 213.8
110.6
104.1
6.5
42.2
48.8 11 262.5
9.8
9.3
0.6
3.8
4.3
Spain
45 283.3
501.1
395.6
105.5
464.3
569.8 45 853.0
11.0
8.7
2.3
10.2
12.5
France
63 753.1
824.0
534.3
289.7
62.3
352.0 64 105.1
12.9
8.4
4.5
1.0
5.5
of which, Metropolitan France
61 875.8
803.7
525.6
278.1
67.2
345.3 62 221.1
13.0
8.5
4.5
1.1
5.6
Italy
59 619.3
573.4
586.7
-13.3
484.5
471.1 60 090.4
9.6
9.8
-0.2
8.1
7.9
Cyprus
789.3
8.3
5.2
3.1
9.3
12.4
801.6
10.4
6.6
3.9
11.7
15.5
Latvia
2 270.9
24.4
31.6
-7.2
-2.5
-9.8
2 261.1
10.8
14.0
-3.2
-1.1
-4.3
Lithuania
3 366.4
35.3
44.2
-8.9
-7.1
-16.0
3 350.4
10.5
13.2
-2.6
-2.1
-4.8
Luxembourg
483.8
5.5
3.4
2.1
5.8
7.9
491.7
11.2
6.9
4.3
11.9
16.2
Hungary
10 045.4
99.3
130.0
-30.8
15.2
-15.5 10 029.9
9.9
13.0
-3.1
1.5
-1.5
Malta
410.3
3.8
3.2
0.6
1.7
2.3
412.6
9.2
7.7
1.5
4.2
5.6
Netherlands
16 405.4
185.6
134.5
51.1
24.7
75.7 16 481.1
11.3
8.2
3.1
1.5
4.6
Austria
8 331.9
76.5
73.1
3.5
21.3
24.8
8 356.7
9.2
8.8
0.4
2.6
3.0
Poland
38 115.6
413.0
382.0
31.0
-16.4
14.7 38 130.3
10.8
10.0
0.8
-0.4
0.4
Portugal
10 617.6
102.2
102.6
-0.5
14.7
14.2 10 631.8
9.6
9.7
0.0
1.4
1.3
Romania
21 528.6
222.8
255.9
-33.1
1.2
-32.0 21 496.7
10.4
11.9
-1.5
0.1
-1.5
Slovenia
2 025.9
20.5
18.6
1.9
25.6
27.5
2 053.4
10.0
9.1
0.9
12.6
13.5
Slovakia
5 401.0
56.4
52.9
3.5
6.6
10.1
5 411.1
10.4
9.8
0.6
1.2
1.9
Finland
5 300.5
59.3
49.0
10.3
14.3
24.6
5 325.1
11.2
9.2
1.9
2.7
4.6
Sweden
9 182.9
109.6
91.3
18.3
57.8
76.1
9 259.0
11.9
9.9
2.0
6.3
8.3
United Kingdom
61 186.0
796.1
573.7
222.4
203.9
426.3 61 612.3
13.0
9.3
3.6
3.3
6.9
EU candidate countries
Croatia
4 436.4
42.5
52.8
-10.2
5.8
-4.4
4 432.0
9.6
11.9
-2.3
1.3
-1.0
Former Yug. Rep. of Macedonia
2 045.2
22.5
18.9
3.6
0.1
3.8
2 048.9
11.0
9.2
1.8
0.1
1.8
Turkey
70 586.3
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
EFTA countries
Iceland
313.4
4.6
1.8
2.7
4.4
7.2
320.5
14.5
5.8
8.7
13.9
22.6
Liechtenstein
35.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.3
35.7
9.6
5.9
3.8
5.6
9.4
Norway
4 737.2
60.1
41.5
18.6
45.6
64.2
4 801.4
12.6
8.7
3.9
9.6
13.5
Switzerland
7 593.5
76.3
61.0
15.3
58.9
74.2
7 667.7
10.0
8.0
2.0
7.7
9.7
Note: data for Turkey not available.
114739141.005.png
Table 2: Information base for 2008 1)
Monthly data availability (up to and including)
COUNTRY
Live births
Deaths
Immigration
Emigration
BE
December 2007 2)
December 2007 2)
— 2)
— 2)
BG
September 2008 2)
September 2008 2)
—
—
CZ
June 2008
June 2008
June 2008
June 2008
DK
September 2008
September 2008
September 2008
September 2008
DE
August 2008 2)
August 2008 2)
April 2008 2)
April 2008 2)
EE
October 2008
October 2008
—
—
IE
March 2008
March 2008
—
—
EL
April 2008
April 2008
—
—
ES
October 2008 2)
October 2008 2)
October 2008 2)
October 2008 2)
FR
December 2007
December 2007
—
—
FX
August 2008
August 2008
—
—
IT
May 2008
May 2008
May 2008
May 2008
CY
August 2008
August 2008
August 2008
September 2008
LV
September 2008
September 2008
September 2008
September 2008
LT
October 2008 2)
October 2008 2)
October 2008 2)
October 2008 2)
LU
August 2008
August 2008
—
—
HU
September 2008 2)
September 2008 2)
—
—
MT
December 2007 2)
December 2007 2)
— 2)
— 2)
NL
September 2008
September 2008
September 2008
September 2008
AT
September 2008
August 2008
June 2008
June 2008
PL
September 2008
September 2008
September 2008 3)
September 2008 3)
PT
June 2008 2)
June 2008 2)
—
—
RO
September 2008 2)
September 2008 2)
June 2008 2), 4)
June 2008 2), 4)
SI
June 2008
June 2008
June 2008
June 2008
SK
September 2008
September 2008
September 2008
September 2008
FI
September 2008 2)
September 2008 2)
September 2008 2)
September 2008 2)
SE
September 2008
September 2008
September 2008
September 2008
UK
June 2008
June 2008
—
—
HR
December 2007
December 2007
—
—
MK
September 2008
September 2008
—
—
TR
—
—
—
—
IS
December 2007
December 2007
—
—
LI
October 2008 2)
October 2008 2)
—
—
NO
September 2008 3)
September 2008 3)
September 2008 3)
September 2008 3)
CH
September 2008
September 2008
September 2008
September 2008
1) Provisional monthly data series available on 15 November 2008.
2) National forecasts available until December 2008.
3) Quarterly data.
4) Half-yearly data.
2
49/2008 — Data in focus
114739141.006.png 114739141.007.png 114739141.008.png 114739141.001.png
Table 3: Differences between nowcasts and observed data in the last exercise (2007)
Errors (nowcast - observed) in thousands
Relative errors
COUNTRY
Population
Live
Deaths
Net
Population
Nowcast
Population
Nowcast
1 Jan 2007
births
migration
1 Jan 2008
error
1 Jan 2008
error
EU-27
38.2
-42.7
18.3
-233.5
-256.3
-294.5
-0.05%
-0.06%
EA-16
2.1
-9.9
13.3
-22.9
-44.0
-46.1
-0.01%
-0.01%
EA-15
2.1
-8.9
13.3
-21.8
-41.8
-43.9
-0.01%
-0.01%
EEA
38.2
-43.0
18.1
-236.0
-258.8
-297.0
-0.05%
-0.06%
EFTA
0.0
-0.8
-1.1
-34.1
-33.9
-33.9
-0.27%
-0.27%
BE
0.0
0.8
2.1
-4.8
-6.1
-6.1
-0.06%
-0.06%
BG
0.0
-2.1
0.7
-32.4
-35.2
-35.2
-0.46%
-0.46%
CZ
0.0
-0.9
-2.1
-36.4
-35.2
-35.2
-0.34%
-0.34%
DK
0.0
-0.5
-0.1
4.3
3.9
3.9
0.07%
0.07%
DE
0.0
-9.8
-0.4
-8.2
-17.7
-17.7
-0.02%
-0.02%
EE
0.0
0.1
0.2
-2.2
-2.3
-2.3
-0.17%
-0.17%
IE
2.1
-5.2
-0.6
16.0
13.5
11.4
0.31%
0.26%
EL
0.0
-2.4
-4.9
0.5
2.9
2.9
0.03%
0.03%
ES
0.0
-9.0
1.4
-15.2
-25.6
-25.6
-0.06%
-0.06%
FR
0.0
14.5
16.0
27.3
25.9
25.9
0.04%
0.04%
FX
0.0
15.5
9.6
27.5
33.4
33.4
0.05%
0.05%
IT
0.0
1.6
-0.1
-42.6
-40.9
-40.9
-0.07%
-0.07%
CY
0.0
0.0
0.1
7.2
7.1
7.1
0.90%
0.90%
LV
0.0
-0.3
0.2
-1.3
-1.8
-1.8
-0.08%
-0.08%
LT
0.0
-0.4
0.0
-0.5
-0.9
-0.9
-0.03%
-0.03%
LU
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
-1.7
-1.6
-1.6
-0.33%
-0.33%
HU
0.0
-0.5
1.0
2.4
0.9
0.9
0.01%
0.01%
MT
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.05%
0.05%
NL
0.0
-0.2
-1.7
-4.9
-3.4
-3.4
-0.02%
-0.02%
AT
0.0
-1.8
-0.4
-3.3
-4.7
-4.7
-0.06%
-0.06%
PL
0.0
-5.7
-3.9
-117.6
-119.5
-119.5
-0.31%
-0.31%
PT
0.0
3.2
2.7
15.0
15.4
15.4
0.15%
0.15%
RO
0.0
-3.7
0.8
-100.7
-105.3
-105.3
-0.49%
-0.49%
SI
0.0
-0.7
0.0
-2.5
-3.2
-3.2
-0.16%
-0.16%
SK
0.0
-1.0
0.0
-1.2
-2.2
-2.2
-0.04%
-0.04%
FI
0.0
0.3
-0.7
-4.6
-3.7
-3.7
-0.07%
-0.07%
SE
0.0
-0.8
-1.0
-1.4
-1.2
-1.2
-0.01%
-0.01%
UK
36.1
-17.8
9.3
75.3
84.3
48.2
0.14%
0.08%
HR
0.0
0.1
1.3
0.2
-1.0
-1.0
-0.02%
-0.02%
MK
0.0
-0.8
-0.1
-5.5
-6.1
-6.1
-0.30%
-0.30%
TR
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
:
IS
0.0
-0.1
0.0
1.0
0.9
0.9
0.30%
0.30%
LI
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.48%
0.48%
NO
0.0
-0.2
-0.2
-3.6
-3.6
-3.6
-0.08%
-0.08%
CH
0.0
-0.6
-0.8
-31.7
-31.4
-31.4
-0.41%
-0.41%
Note: data for Turkey not available.
Data in focus — 49/2008
3
114739141.002.png 114739141.003.png
Methodology
GEOGRAPHIC DEFINITIONS
European Union Member States (EU-27) : Belgium (BE), Bulgaria (BG), Czech Republic (CZ), Denmark (DK), Germany
(DE), Estonia (EE), Ireland (IE), Greece (EL), Spain (ES), France (FR), Italy (IT), Cyprus (CY), Latvia (LV), Lithuania (LT),
Luxembourg (LU), Hungary (HU), Malta (MT), the Netherlands (NL), Austria (AT), Poland (PL), Portugal (PT), Romania (RO),
Slovenia (SI), Slovakia (SK), Finland (FI), Sweden (SE) and the United Kingdom (UK).
Euro area (EA-16) : Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Ireland, Italy, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands,
Austria, Portugal, Slovenia, Slovakia and Finland.
EA-15 : EA-16 without Slovakia.
EU candidate countries : Croatia (HR), the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (MK) and Turkey (TR).
European Economic Area (EEA) : all the European Union Member States, Iceland (IS), Liechtenstein (LI) and Norway (NO).
European Free Trade Association (EFTA) : Iceland (IS), Liechtenstein (LI), Norway (NO) and Switzerland (CH).
National conditions: data for France refer to the whole of France, i.e. Metropolitan France (FX) plus the overseas
departments (Guadeloupe, Martinique, French Guiana and Reunion); figures for Cyprus refer to the government-controlled
area.
GLOSSARY
Natural change : the difference between the number of live births and the number of deaths.
Net migration : the difference between the number of immigrants and the number of emigrants.
Total change : the difference between the population sizes on 1 January of two consecutive years. The crude rate of total
change is a measure of the population growth.
Crude rate : the ratio of the number of events to the person-years lived. For clearer presentation, it is usually multiplied by
1000 so that it can be expressed as number of events per 1000 inhabitants .
METHODOLOGY
Eurostat nowcasts are based primarily on extrapolation of monthly time series of live births, deaths, immigration and
emigration to cover the whole year. The extrapolation model is selected with a view to minimisation of the root mean square
error, taking into account any seasonal components. For migration flows, given their variability and the lack of appropriate
data, alternative methods or national forecasts can be used in specific cases. Population nowcasts are therefore obtained by
means of the component method.
Table 2 shows the jump-off month of the extrapolation model for each component and country. For some countries, the
extrapolation can therefore cover the whole of 2008 and not only the missing months. Table 3 assesses the accuracy of the
last nowcast exercise. The differences for the population on 1 January 2007 reflect the changes in the base population due to
revisions made by the National Statistical Institutes after the exercise and, as such, cannot be attributed to the nowcasting
method. In several cases, revisions also affect the time series of the various components and therefore the results of the
nowcast, but they are not taken into account in Table 3. Moreover, the data referring to the latest months are usually
provisional, which might influence the extrapolation of the time series.
Source of all data in this publication: Eurostat nowcasts .
Further information
European Statistical Data Support:
Contact details for this support network can be found on our Internet site:
http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/
Population and so cial cond itio ns
Population
Demography
Dem o gr ap h y - Na ti on al da ta
Manuscript completed on: 10.12.2008
Data extracted on: 15.11.2008
ISSN 1977-0340
Catalogue number: KS-QA-08-049-EN-N
© European Communities, 2008
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