The_NY_session.pdf

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The New York Session

This ebook is part of a comprehensive program to train you to successfully trade currency. Alas,

you’ll probably lose money. We all do at first. Rob’s not liable if, based upon the nformation you

read here, you lose money, make money, turn into a woodchuck, possum, or other furry creature.

You have to work hard, study a lot, and dedicate yourself mentally. Don’t ever give up

The New York Session

Most movement between 8:15 and 10:00am EST

Qamar’s Pastries may contain nuts and/or beef

Like activity? Trade on days with big news.

“Hi, my name is Don Henley, formerly of the Eagles, and

then formerly of bad easy listening songs. I endorse trading

the New York session.”

How I plan for the week/month of New York

trading:

1. Check econ calendar.

http://biz.yahoo.com/c/e.html

http://www.forexfactory.com/

http://www.forbes.com/finance/eventcalendar/

FullEconomicEvents.jhtml

2. Plan to be available to trade news on days

with these events/reports:

Fed Chairman Speaking on Policy/Econ Strength

Retail Sales

Consumer Price Index (ex Food & Energy)

GDP-Advance

Housing Data

Trade Balance

Non Farm Payroll

TICs Data (Treasury International Capital)

3. Remember that just because a report is

“positive for the USD,” it does not mean

that the USD will strengthen.

“Hey! Would somebody wake up the New York Market?!”

4. I use pivot points (GMT -5) to help me find

stopping points in fast moving markets.

Jean plots a monkey and organ grinder

instead.

5. Trade when actual econ numbers are

different from consensus numbers, or when

the charts tell you that there is significant

activity after a report (25-30 pips in 15 min

is good). If the report is a dud, don’t forget

that you have planned trades for a cross

(CADJPY) pair that can move regardless of

NY session econ reports.

a) Fed Chairman Speaking on Policy/Econ Strength:

If Ben’s beard is slightly disheveled or unevenly

combed, expect the USD to move 100 pips downward.

Or, watch CNBC and see what Steve Leisman has to

say about his comments. Or, watch the charts for a

reaction to his comments and follow the market.

b) Retail Sales: If the actual number released is more

than .5% different than the consensus, expect a 50-75

pip move.

c) Consumer Price Index (ex-Food & Energy): If the

actual number is different by 1% than the consensus

number, expect a move of 50-100 pips.

d) GDP-Advance: If the number is more than 1.5%

different than the expected number you can expect a

move of 75-100 pips. This is for the ADVANCE report

only!

e) Housing Data: Existing home sales (difference of

2M) and new home sales (I don’t know the difference)

are really influential right now. For the New Home

Sales, I watch to see what Rick Santelli on CNBC says.

f) Trade Balance: If the actual number is different by

7B or more, that’s enough to move the market 50-150

pips. If the number dips below 50B, or goes above

70B, it’s generally going to move the market no matter

what.

g) Non Farm Payroll: This is one of the biggest reports

out at all. Look for the difference to be 100,000 jobs.

It will create a move of 100-150 pips. Biggest NFP

moves are 250-300 pips and are not necessarily tied to

the how different the actual number was from the

consesnsus.

h) TICs Data (Treasury International Capital): This is

likely to become the most influential report over the

next 12 months. There is no “consensus number,” only

a comparison with last month’s number AND a

comparison with the trade balance number from the

same ‘reporting’ month. TICs numbers that are far off

last month’s number, or below 50B, or above 100B, are

blockbusters. Watch for the market to move 50-200

pips on any TICs day. This report takes a while to sink

into the market.

6. How to watch the charts after a report:

Wait 15 minutes. In the example below,

the pair makes a post-report high. It had

already made a pre-report (overnight) low.

If the price then moves beyond either

number (the high or the low) then you

know the market has picked an initial

direction.

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