03.02 Flop.pdf

This is the first draft of the chapter on the Flop in Hold’em Brain by King Yao. Please email

feedback, suggestions, comments, opinions, questions to KingYao@HoldemBrain.com or you

could use the Feedback Form to email me at the bottom of the page.

Hold’em Brain: The Flop

The Flop is a critical point in Hold’em. Players get to see three cards on the Flop, which is more

cards than in any other round in the game. Along with the two starting cards, it means each player

will now know five out of the seven total cards that can be part of their hand. There is enough

information that most players should know how to proceed from this point forward with some

degree of certainty. Since the betting on the Flop is still on the cheap side, it means many players

will use this round to pose and to jostle for positioning. This means aggressive play is not as

meaningful as it may be on the Turn or River.

Thinking on the Flop

There are two main steps to analyzing the Flop. The first step is to analyze what the Flop means

for your hand. The second step is to see what it may do for other player’s hands. The third step is

to see how other players may analyze the Flop in relation to your hand.

Step 1: Analyze what the Flop means for your hand

If you started with a drawing hand pre-Flop, you need to see if the Flop keeps your draw alive. For

example, if you started with 9 ♥ 8 ♥ and the Flop is three completely unrelated cards, such as

A♣T ♦ 3 ♦ , then it is usually best to give up at this point. The only time you may want to try a play

on the Flop is if you had raised pre-Flop with only one or two callers and it is checked to you on the

Flop. A bet on the Flop may win you the hand right there. On the other hand, if you picked up a

draw with your 9 ♥ 8 ♥ , then you may continue depending on the strength of the betting. With a

Flop of T ♥ 7 ♥ 3♣, where you have a straight flush draw, you will be able to stay around until the

River to see if you have caught your hand. However, not all draws are worthwhile to continue with

on the Flop. For example, with the 9 ♥ 8 ♥ , if the Flop is T ♦ 6♠3♠, you should always fold if there

is a bet and a raise, and you should consider folding to just one bet.

If you started with a made hand, such as a big pocket pair, the first step is to see if any overcards

or pairs have hit the board. If either of these happens, then it means any player would only need

one card in their hand to have a better hand than yours. For example, if you hold Q♣Q ♥ , and the

Flop is A ♥ 9♣3♣, then any player with an A would have a better hand. Also, a Flop of J♣J ♥ 3♠

would mean any player with a lone J in their hand would have a better hand.

If there are no cards higher than your pair and no pairs on the board, then usually it is a good sign.

But you will need to be aware of flush draws and straight draws. For example, with Q♣Q ♥ , a

Flop of J ♦ T♣3 ♦ is much more dangerous than a Flop of J ♥ 6♣3 ♦ . This is because in the first

Flop of J ♦ T♣3 ♦ , there are possible straight draws (a player with KQ, Q9 or 98 would have an

open-ended straight draw) and flush draws (a player with two diamonds would have a flush draw).

Meanwhile, in the second Flop of J ♥ 6♣3 ♦ , draws are less likely, thus it is a less dangerous Flop.

When you have a big pocket pair, you are normally worried about an overcard hitting the board.

The only pocket pair that does not have to be worried about overcards is AA. The following table

shows the percentage of Flops that will have at least one overcard to your pocket pair, and the

percentage of Flops that will not have any overcards to your pocket pair.

Pocket Pair

Percentage of Flops

that will have at least

one overcard to your

Pocket Pair

Percentage of Flops

that will NOT have

any overcards to

your Pocket Pair

100%

22.6%

77.4%

41.4%

58.6%

57.0%

43.0%

69.5%

30.5%

79.3%

20.7%

86.7%

13.3%

92.1%

7.9%

95.8%

4.2%

98.1%

1.9%

If you started with two big cards and caught a pair, then it is usually a good sign. If you did not

catch a pair, you may still have a chance to win the hand depending on the number of players left

in the hand and the quality of the Flop.

Step 2: Analyze what the Flop may mean for other players’ hands

Whether or not you have a possible straight draw or flush draw, you need to watch out for any and

all possible draws. Flush draws are the easiest to see on the Flop, as any Flop with three or two

cards of the same suit means there is a chance someone is on a flush draw. Straight draws are a bit

tougher to see. If there is a two gap or less with any two cards on the Flop, then it means there is

a chance there is an open-ended straight draw.

Here are some Flops that would give a possible open-ended straight draw

Flop

Hands that would have an

open-ended straight draw

Q-J-3

KT, T9

Q-T-3

KJ, J9

Q-9-3

Q-9-7

JT, T8, 86

If there is a three gap with any two cards on the Flop, then it means there is a possible inside

straight draw. These are less worrisome since it would be tougher for an opponent to catch them.

If a player has shown aggression pre-Flop, with a raise or a re-raise, it usually means a pair or two

big cards. This means Flops that contain an A are very dangerous, and those with a K or Q may

be dangerous as well. For example, if a reasonable player raised in middle position, he likely has

a pair or two high cards. If you call with a drawing type of hand such as 87s, and the Flop comes

A-7-3, there are very few hands your opponent could have that would allow your hand to be ahead.

Although you may have 5 outs, it will still be likely you do not have pot odds to continue with a

hand like this. However, if the Flop comes 7-3-2, now you are ahead unless he had a bigger pair,

a set or a 7 with a higher kicker.

Step 3: Analyze what your opponent(s) may think about your hand based on the Flop

Usually when you Flop a middle or low set, it is tough for your opponents to see what you have

made. For example, if the Flop is A-T-8 and you held 88, any player with an A may feel fairly

strong, especially if they have a strong kicker. Your three 8's will be difficult for any opponents to

see or read. With a disguised hand like this, and a possible strong hand from your opponent, you

can play aggressively on the Flop. This is because you know your aggressive play will likely not

lose any customers on the Turn since you are assuming he has a split pair of A’s.

If you had raised pre-Flop, then other players will usually put you on a pair or two big cards (and

for the most part, they would be correct). The sharp players will also notice if the Flop comes

without any big cards. If you do have a big pair, this is good for you as they will be willing to give

you more action. For example, if you have AA, and the Flop is 8-3-2, you will get paid off more

than when the Flop is A-3-2.

Betting on the Flop

The Flop is the time to try the strategy of raising for a free card. You should do it against

opponents who will check to you on the Turn when you do raise on the Flop, thus allowing you to

see a free card. You should also be aware of other opponents who may be trying this, because you

may want to re-raise them on the Flop or bet into them on the Turn if it looks like their draw did

not make it yet. See the chapter on Free Cards for more on free card raising strategy.

Raising for a free card twice may also be useful. This happens when you get re-raised by a player

after you raised for the free card. For example, your opponent bets, you raise with a flush draw,

but instead of just calling, he re-raises. You believe he is re-raising because he thinks you are on

a free card flush draw. You may consider raising again to finally get that free card. In order for it

to be useful, you have to be sure that he will now believe you have a legitimate made hand and that

he will not bet out on the Turn to thwart your double free card raises.

If you are in early position, a check-raise is a plausible strategy. This strategy is best suited for the

Flop because it is easier to count on the pre-Flop raiser to bet on the Flop than on any other round.

There are two reasons for a check-raise on the Flop. The first is to get more money in the pot

against just one or two players because you think you have the best hand. The second is to

check-raise and make it expensive for any other player to stick around to see the Turn. If you are

in early position and have a probably best hand, but you think it is vulnerable to overcards, you

may decide to check with the intention of raising if you can count on a late position player to bet.

For example, if you have A9 in early position, and the Flop is 9-6-3, there are numerous overcards

to your pair of 9's. If you bet out into a field, any player with two overcards likely has pot odds to

call and see the Turn. However, if you check and get the opportunity to raise a late position

player’s bet, then you can make it too expensive for a player to call with just two overcards. Then

they would not have proper pot odds to call. If they do, they would be making a mistake which can

benefit you, so now you would not mind if they did call.

Raising with the Nut Flush Draw on the Flop and Turn

There are times when you actually want to raise with a nut flush draw on the Flop without pot odds

considerations. This is when you believe there are enough players who are going to call bets that

you are being offered the correct odds on that round alone to keep raising.

When you have the nut flush draw on the Flop, there will be 9 outs to make your flush and 38

non-outs. If there are 4 other players in and you have the nut flush draw on the Flop, it is sound

strategy to keep raising even if you do not have position because you have plenty of chances to hit

your nut flush. In this case, you are not even worried about the pot odds as it concerns the whole

pot, you are only concerned with the pot odds on this round alone.

On the Turn, this idea may work as well. If you can get 4-1 odds, you are usually happy to keep

raising. Sometimes another player may have two pair or a set, in which case your odds may be

reduced down to 37-7, in which case you would need at least 5-1 to keep raising. The reason you

can be safe with 5-1 odds is because if someone has a good hand like a set or two pair, you can

usually expect to gain more bets from them on the River when you do get your flush. Of course,

having five players calling on the Turn is quite unusual, and when these situations occur, sometimes

some of the players may actually be on a flush draw as well, which will hurt your chances of

making the flush.

Playing AK on the Flop

AK is a nice starting hand in Hold’em, but once the Flop comes, AK could turn into a poor hand

very quickly. AK is a tough hand to play if neither an A or a K comes on the Flop. Sometimes AK

turns into a drawing hand as you are fairly comfortable that if an A or a K comes on the Turn or

River, that your hand may be good. Other times, AK can still be a decent hand even without a pair,

this can happen when no one else has a pair. Here are some scenarios of how to play AK when the

Flop is not favorable.

When to check with AK on the Flop

If there are several opponents and the Flop completely misses your AK, do not think you are

obligated to bet if it is checked to you. Too many players think since they raised pre-Flop with this

hand that they are forced to bet it on the Flop even if it misses them and there are numerous players.

This is incorrect. It is ok to check with AK on the Flop when the situation calls for it.

Example:

You are on the Button in an 8 handed game and two players have limped in front of you. You raise

with A♣K ♦ , a legitimate raising hand even with the two limpers in front of you. Both blinds call

as do the two limpers. Five players see the Flop.

Flop: Q♠9♠3♣

If all players check to you, it is all right to check along and see a free card on the Turn. With two

relatively high cards (Q and 9) and two cards of the same suit, many players likely would have

interest to continue with the hand. In fact it is possible one of the blinds has checked with plans to

check-raise when you bet. The best card that can come out for you is an A or a K, but even then,

those cards are dangerous as someone could very well have two pair when an A hits. Also someone

could easily have a straight with JT if a K hits. Checking in a spot like this is not a weakness, it is

simply a smart play.

When to bet with AK on the Flop

If it is checked to you and there are not many opponents (3 at most, hopefully 1 or 2 only), then you

should always bet. The first reason is that you may still have the best hand and pick up the pot right

there. The second reason is that even if you do not currently have the best hand, it is very possible

you could catch the best hand on the Turn or River. For example, you raised pre-Flop in late

position and both blinds call. The Flop comes 8-6-3 rainbow, and it is checked to you. You should

bet and hope they both fold. If you get check-raised, you can call because you will usually have

enough pot odds unless he has two pair or has one of your cards counterfeited.

When you have AK with a Flop of K-8-8

This is a great Flop if none of your opponents has an 8 but one or more has a K. Any other player

with a K is in danger of losing to your pair of K’s with the best kicker. There are two K’s left in the

deck as well as two 8's left. Since players are much more likely to play a starting hand that contains

a K than an 8, it means you should be a big favorite in this hand. You should be betting this hand

aggressively on the Flop.

When you have AK and the Flop is Q-J-x rainbow

When you have AK and the Flop comes with a Q and a J, then a T will give you a straight, although

an A or a K may not be an out. For example, you could be up against one player with AQ and

another player with T9. But if your opponent(s) do have a pair, but without an A or K, then either

of those cards could be an out for you as well. Sometimes either the A or the K will be an out, but

you cannot be sure which one is an out. A Flop of Q-J-x is a dangerous Flop for AK. If there is too

much pressure, you may need to dump this hand on the Flop (if there is a bet and a raise) or on the

Turn (if a player you think has AQ, KQ, AJ, KJ has bet).

When there is a three Flush on the Flop

When three cards of the same suit come on the Flop, many players will hang around with just one

card of that suit. The very loose players will hang around with any card of that suit, including just

Plik z chomika:

Inne pliki z tego folderu:

Inne foldery tego chomika: